Will Denver Repeat?

The AFC West enters the 2026 NFL season looking dramatically different from the division Kansas City once controlled.

Denver went 14-3 last season, won the AFC West and advanced to the conference championship game. The Los Angeles Chargers finished 11-6 and earned a wild-card berth, while the Chiefs collapsed to 6-11 after Patrick Mahomes suffered a significant knee injury. Las Vegas tied for the NFL’s worst record at 3-14 and used the first overall draft pick on quarterback Fernando Mendoza. 

Despite those results, MyBookie lists Kansas City as the narrow favorite to win the division. The Chargers and Broncos are close behind, creating one of the NFL’s most evenly priced three-team races.

2026 AFC West Odds at MyBookie

• Kansas City Chiefs: +176 to win the AFC West; +1600 to win Super Bowl LXI
• Los Angeles Chargers: +196 to win the AFC West; +1600 to win Super Bowl LXI
• Denver Broncos: +206 to win the AFC West; +2000 to win Super Bowl LXI
• Las Vegas Raiders: +1800 to win the AFC West; +12000 to win Super Bowl LXI

MyBookie odds are current as of September 1, 2026, and are subject to change.

Kansas City Chiefs Preview: Patrick Mahomes Leads a Rebound Attempt

2025 record: 6-11
MyBookie AFC West odds: +176
MyBookie Super Bowl odds: +1600
Projected record: 10-7

Kansas City begins the season in an unfamiliar position.

The Chiefs are attempting to return to the playoffs rather than defend an AFC championship. Their 6-11 record in 2025 ended a run of sustained success that included nine consecutive division titles, seven straight AFC Championship Game appearances and three Super Bowl victories.

Kansas City’s hopes depend largely on Mahomes’ recovery from the ACL and LCL injuries that ended his 2025 season. Mahomes participated in the offseason program on a limited basis and expressed optimism about returning for the beginning of the regular season, but the Chiefs have every reason to proceed cautiously.

Justin Fields provides Kansas City with an experienced backup and an alternative rushing dimension. Fields could be required to start early if Mahomes is not cleared or if the Chiefs choose to limit their franchise quarterback.

Even if Mahomes plays in Week 1, his mobility will be closely monitored. His ability to escape pressure, extend plays and throw from unconventional positions has always been central to Kansas City’s offense. A less mobile version of Mahomes could force head coach Andy Reid to rely more heavily on quick passes and the running game.

The Chiefs upgraded that running game by adding Kenneth Walker III. Walker forced 77 missed tackles during the 2025 regular season and playoffs and should provide the explosive production Kansas City frequently lacked in the backfield. Rookie Emmett Johnson gives Reid another versatile option. 

Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy lead the receiving corps, while Travis Kelce returns at tight end. Kelce remains one of the most accomplished players at his position, but Kansas City must continue developing younger targets as his career approaches its final stages.

The offensive line features center Creed Humphrey and guard Trey Smith, with Josh Simmons, Kingsley Suamataia and Jaylon Moore competing to establish stability at tackle. Protecting Mahomes will be especially important as he works his way back from the knee injury.

Kansas City’s defense also underwent significant turnover. The Chiefs traded All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie and allowed Jaylen Watson to leave in free agency. L’Jarius Sneed returned to Kansas City, but the secondary will rely heavily on young players such as Chamarri Conner, Jaden Hicks, Nohl Williams and Mansoor Delane.

Chris Jones remains the defense’s centerpiece, with George Karlaftis and Felix Anudike-Uzomah providing pressure from the edge. Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill give coordinator Steve Spagnuolo experience at linebacker.

Kansas City kept 11 rookies on its initial roster and enters the season with the NFL’s third-youngest team. That youth creates developmental upside but also makes the roster less predictable than the veteran-heavy Chiefs teams of recent years. 

Biggest strength: Mahomes, Reid and a championship-tested organizational structure.

Biggest concern: Mahomes’ health and a young secondary replacing multiple established contributors.

Outlook: The Chiefs deserve respect as long as Mahomes is playing, but their status as the division favorite rests heavily on reputation. Kansas City should improve substantially on last season’s record, although reclaiming the AFC West is far from guaranteed.

Los Angeles Chargers Preview: Mike McDaniel Could Unlock Justin Herbert

2025 record: 11-6
MyBookie AFC West odds: +196
MyBookie Super Bowl odds: +1600
Projected record: 11-6

The Chargers have won 11 games in each of Jim Harbaugh’s first two seasons, but regular-season improvement has not translated into playoff success.

Los Angeles scored only 15 combined points in its past two wild-card defeats. Those offensive failures led Harbaugh to move on from longtime collaborator Greg Roman and hire former Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator.

McDaniel’s arrival represents an opportunity to modernize the offense around Herbert.

The Chargers have emphasized quicker footwork and faster decisions from Herbert, hoping McDaniel’s use of motion, spacing and timing can create more yards after the catch. Herbert remains one of the NFL’s most physically gifted passers, but Los Angeles has too often asked him to overcome poor protection and predictable play-calling.

Herbert absorbed a career-high 54 sacks and faced 268 pressures last season. Rashawn Slater missed the year after suffering a patellar tendon injury, while Joe Alt appeared in only six games before undergoing ankle surgery. Both tackles return in 2026, giving the Chargers a chance to transform a major weakness into a strength. 

The interior line remains unsettled, however. Center Tyler Biadasz suffered an injury during the preseason, and the Chargers carried 11 offensive linemen on their initial roster. The added depth could become important if injuries again disrupt the unit.

Omarion Hampton enters his second season as the lead running back after producing 545 yards and four touchdowns in nine rookie appearances. His combination of speed and power should fit McDaniel’s system, while Keaton Mitchell supplies another explosive option. 

Ladd McConkey leads the receiving corps after establishing himself as Herbert’s most dependable target. Quentin Johnston and KeAndre Lambert-Smith add speed, while David Njoku, Oronde Gadsden II and Charlie Kolar form a deep tight-end group.

Los Angeles must also navigate a defensive transition. Jesse Minter left to become Baltimore’s head coach, placing Chris O’Leary in charge of the unit.

Tuli Tuipulotu recorded 13 sacks last season and will lead the pass rush alongside veteran Khalil Mack. The Chargers also used a first-round pick on Akheem Mesidor, who led the ACC with 12.5 sacks in 2025. Dalvin Tomlinson was added to strengthen the defensive interior.

Biggest strength: Herbert operating a more creative offense with improved tackle play.

Biggest concern: Interior offensive-line injuries and uncertainty surrounding the defensive pass rush.

Outlook: The Chargers have enough talent to win the division. McDaniel may be the coordinator best equipped to maximize Herbert, but Los Angeles must demonstrate it can remain healthy and perform in high-pressure games. Until the Chargers win in January, skepticism will remain justified.

Denver Broncos Preview: The Defending Champions Remain Undervalued

2025 record: 14-3
MyBookie AFC West odds: +206
MyBookie Super Bowl odds: +2000
Projected record: 12-5

Denver is the defending AFC West champion, won eight more games than Kansas City last season and retained most of a roster that reached the AFC Championship Game.

Yet the Broncos enter 2026 with the third-shortest odds in their division.

The sportsbook’s caution may be connected to Denver’s difficult early schedule and questions surrounding quarterback Bo Nix’s recovery. Nix fractured his ankle near the end of the Broncos’ divisional-round victory, forcing him to miss the AFC Championship Game.

Nix returned to the field during mandatory minicamp and said doctors considered his ankle “as good as new.” Both Nix and Sean Payton have indicated that the injury should not restrict his mobility. 

The Broncos strengthened their passing attack by acquiring Jaylen Waddle from Miami. Waddle recorded three 1,000-yard seasons during his first five NFL campaigns and owns a 17-game average of 81 receptions, 1,098 yards and six touchdowns.

Waddle’s speed gives Denver a dynamic complement to Courtland Sutton. Defenses will have difficulty consistently devoting extra coverage to Sutton when Waddle can threaten every level of the field. Marvin Mims Jr., Troy Franklin and breakout candidate Pat Bryant complete a deep receiving corps. 

J.K. Dobbins, RJ Harvey and rookie Jonah Coleman form the backfield. The Broncos’ offensive line protected Nix effectively last season but needs to produce a more consistent running game, particularly late in the year.

Denver also changed offensive play-callers despite its success. Payton promoted 31-year-old Davis Webb to offensive coordinator and transferred play-calling responsibilities to him. Webb has worked closely with Nix, but directing the offense on game day creates an entirely different challenge.

The defense gives Denver a championship-level foundation. Patrick Surtain II remains one of the league’s premier cornerbacks, allowing defensive coordinator Vance Joseph to be aggressive with his pressure packages.

The Broncos retained most of the unit that helped them win 14 games. Defensive lineman Eyioma Uwazurike is expected to receive an expanded role following Jonathan Franklin-Myers’ departure, while Talanoa Hufanga supplies physicality in the secondary.

Biggest strength: An elite defense complemented by a deeper and faster receiving corps.

Biggest concern: Whether Nix fully recovers and how smoothly Webb handles his first season as the offensive play-caller.

Outlook: Denver is the most attractive AFC West value at +206. The Broncos have the division’s strongest defense, a healthy Nix and an improved passing attack. Some regression from 14 wins is reasonable, but there is little evidence that Denver should be considered inferior to Kansas City or Los Angeles.

Las Vegas Raiders Preview: Fernando Mendoza Represents the Future

2025 record: 3-14
MyBookie AFC West odds: +1800
MyBookie Super Bowl odds: +12000
Projected record: 6-11

Las Vegas begins another organizational reset after its three-win season secured the first overall selection in the 2026 NFL Draft.

The Raiders used that pick on Mendoza, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner who led Indiana to a 16-0 season and a national championship. He earned a 90.7 passing grade during his final college campaign and enters the NFL with the accuracy, intelligence and leadership traits necessary to become a franchise quarterback. 

New head coach Klint Kubiak would prefer not to rush Mendoza. Las Vegas signed Kirk Cousins to provide an experienced bridge quarterback, and signs during the preseason pointed toward Cousins opening the year as the starter.

Cousins completed nearly 77% of his preseason passes, while Mendoza experienced predictable inconsistency. The Raiders also retained Aidan O’Connell, giving Kubiak three quarterbacks with different levels of experience.

Las Vegas can allow Mendoza to learn from the sideline while building an offense around running back Ashton Jeanty and tight end Brock Bowers.

Jeanty rushed for 975 yards as a rookie and produced 815 yards after contact. With improvement from the offensive line, he has the potential to become one of the NFL’s most productive running backs. Rookie Mike Washington Jr. also earned a role following a strong preseason. 

Bowers is already one of the league’s premier tight ends and should remain the passing game’s central target. The larger problem is the receiving corps. Tre Tucker is dependable but may be better suited to a complementary role, and no established No. 1 receiver emerged during the offseason.

That limitation could make Las Vegas overly dependent on Jeanty and Bowers, allowing opponents to crowd the middle of the field.

Maxx Crosby remains the defense’s defining player. A healthy Crosby can disrupt an entire game plan, but the Raiders need more consistent production around him. New defensive coordinator Rob Leonard will call plays for the first time after serving as the team’s defensive line coach.

The defense improved during the preseason as players became more comfortable with Leonard’s system, but the unit must prove that progress can carry into meaningful games. 

Biggest strength: A young offensive foundation featuring Mendoza, Jeanty and Bowers.

Biggest concern: A thin receiving corps and a roster that remains behind the division’s three contenders.

Outlook: The Raiders finally appear to have a coherent long-term plan. Their success should not be measured by whether they reach the playoffs in 2026. It should be measured by Mendoza’s development and whether the organization identifies the additional pieces it needs for 2027.

2026 AFC West Predictions and Projected Standings

1. Denver Broncos: 12-5
2. Los Angeles Chargers: 11-6
3. Kansas City Chiefs: 10-7
4. Las Vegas Raiders: 6-11

The AFC West may be the NFL’s most difficult division to predict.

Kansas City has Mahomes and Reid, making a significant rebound likely. The Chiefs could win the division if Mahomes returns at full strength, but his recovery and the turnover in the secondary create legitimate uncertainty.

The Chargers may possess the division’s highest offensive ceiling. Pairing Herbert with McDaniel could produce outstanding results, particularly if Slater and Alt remain healthy.

Denver receives the narrow edge because of its overall balance. The Broncos won 14 games last season, retained most of an elite defense and gave Nix another major weapon in Waddle. Their +206 price provides better value than Kansas City’s +176 despite Denver entering as the defending champion.

Las Vegas should improve under Kubiak, but it remains at least one developmental season away from matching the division’s top three teams.

Final prediction: Denver repeats as AFC West champion, with Los Angeles and Kansas City remaining in the wild-card race deep into December.

Odds can change at any time. Sports betting involves risk and should be limited to adults in jurisdictions where it is legal. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

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