College Football’s Remaining Playoff Contenders: Notre Dame Leads a Wide-Open Group of Six Race
Outside the four largest conferences, Notre Dame remains a national championship threat while Boise State, UNLV, James Madison and a crowded field compete for the guaranteed Group of Six playoff berth.
The road to the 2026 College Football Playoff looks dramatically different for teams outside the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC.
Notre Dame controls a traditional at-large path. The Fighting Irish begin the season ranked No. 4 nationally and need only to finish in the selection committee’s top 12 to secure a playoff berth under the current agreement.
Everyone else faces a narrower opening.
The highest-ranked team from the six remaining FBS conferences—the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 and Sun Belt—is guaranteed a place in the 12-team playoff. The 2026 rule does not require that team to win its conference, although a championship will remain an important résumé separator. ESPN
That change creates a national race involving teams that may never meet. Boise State must survive the rebuilt Pac-12. UNLV and newly promoted North Dakota State headline the Mountain West. James Madison again carries the Sun Belt’s hopes, while Navy, UTSA, Memphis and Texas State are positioned to benefit from widespread coaching turnover in the American.
None of those programs begins inside the AP Top 25. The selection committee will therefore place enormous weight on record, conference championships, head-to-head results and performances against Power Four opponents.
The list below includes only teams with a credible preseason route to the playoff rather than every program with a mathematical chance.
National-title odds are a DraftKings snapshot listed by ESPN on Aug. 24, 2026. “Off board” indicates that the team was not listed in the available market. Odds can change rapidly and may vary by location. ESPN/DraftKings futures
The national championship contender
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Projected record: 11-1
National-title odds: +600
Notre Dame is not merely the best team outside the four largest conferences. The Fighting Irish are one of the leading national championship favorites.
Marcus Freeman returns a veteran roster with elite defensive talent, experienced offensive pieces and more continuity than any other major contender. ESPN’s returning-production model placed Notre Dame first nationally, bringing back 72 percent of its production and 77 percent on defense.
The schedule contains significant games against Miami, BYU and SMU but lacks the weekly difficulty faced by SEC or Big Ten contenders. That gives Notre Dame an opportunity to build a strong record, although the selection committee may expect dominant performances against weaker opponents.
The Irish are listed at -800 to make the playoff. A two-loss record probably keeps them in the field, while three losses would create a serious debate because Notre Dame cannot secure an automatic bid through a conference championship. DraftKings playoff odds
Realistic expectation: Eleven wins, a home playoff game and a legitimate opportunity to reach the national championship game.
The Group of Six favorites
UNLV Rebels
Projected record: 10-2
National-title odds: +80000
UNLV may have the clearest path to the guaranteed Group of Six berth.
Boise State’s move to the Pac-12 removed the Mountain West’s most established obstacle. The Rebels should again contend for the conference championship and have meaningful nonconference opportunities against Memphis, California and North Texas.
Those games will determine UNLV’s national position. Wins over recognizable opponents could lift the Rebels above champions from the American, Pac-12 and Sun Belt. Losses would leave the Mountain West schedule with too little strength to compensate.
ESPN ranks UNLV’s overall schedule only No. 124 nationally, making style and margin of victory important even though the committee does not formally reward teams for running up scores.
Realistic expectation: Ten wins and a Mountain West Championship Game appearance. UNLV is the narrow preseason choice to claim the Group of Six playoff spot.
North Dakota State Bison
Projected record: 10-2
National-title odds: +100000
North Dakota State enters its new FBS era carrying a championship culture and one of the most fascinating playoff cases in the country.
The Bison have dominated the Football Championship Subdivision for more than a decade and should immediately possess the physical line play required to compete in the Mountain West. Their challenge is demonstrating that success against a schedule without a Power Four opponent.
Road games at Hawaii, New Mexico and UNLV will likely determine whether North Dakota State reaches the conference championship game. An 11-1 or 12-0 record would force the committee to take the Bison seriously. At 10-2, their strength of schedule could become a problem.
Realistic expectation: Ten wins and immediate Mountain West contention. North Dakota State may need to win the conference and finish with no more than one loss to secure the playoff berth.
James Madison Dukes
Projected record: 10-2
National-title odds: Off board
James Madison returns as the Sun Belt favorite after reaching the playoff last season.
The Dukes face two résumé-defining nonconference games: Liberty at home in the opener and San Diego State on the road Sept. 19. Winning both would give James Madison direct leverage over contenders from Conference USA and the Pac-12.
A new coaching staff introduces uncertainty, but James Madison has repeatedly maintained success through leadership changes. The program’s recruiting, player development and established culture remain strong enough to prevent a typical rebuilding cycle.
Conference road games against Old Dominion and Georgia Southern represent the greatest threats to another Sun Belt title-game appearance.
Realistic expectation: Ten wins and a Sun Belt championship. A victory over San Diego State could become a decisive playoff tiebreaker.
Boise State Broncos
Projected record: 9-3
National-title odds: +70000
Boise State enters the rebuilt Pac-12 as its most recognizable football program and the market favorite to win the conference.
Quarterback Maddux Madsen returns for coach Spencer Danielson, giving the Broncos valuable stability after a five-loss season. Boise State also possesses the resources, fan support and recruiting reputation associated with decades of success outside the power-conference structure.
The schedule gives the Broncos both an opportunity and a problem. Boise State opens at No. 2 Oregon, creating the season’s best chance for any Group of Six team to record an elite victory. A respectable loss would not end the playoff pursuit, but a decisive defeat could become difficult to overcome.
Memphis visits in Week 2, while Boise State later plays Washington State, Oregon State and San Diego State. That schedule is stronger than those of most Group of Six contenders but also makes a one-loss season unlikely.
Boise State begins as the highest-rated Group of Six program in preseason SP+, at approximately No. 49 nationally. San Antonio Express-News
Realistic expectation: Nine wins and a Pac-12 Championship Game appearance. The Broncos may need to beat San Diego State twice to reach the playoff.
San Diego State Aztecs
Projected record: 9-3
National-title odds: +80000
San Diego State is the strongest alternative to Boise State in the new Pac-12.
The Aztecs should possess enough offense to compensate for significant defensive turnover. That represents an unusual shift for a program traditionally built around defense and special teams.
Nonconference games against UCLA and James Madison give San Diego State two opportunities to strengthen its résumé. The James Madison game is particularly important because both teams could finish as conference champions competing for the same playoff invitation.
San Diego State must travel to Boise State late in the season, but the conference format could produce a rematch in the Pac-12 Championship Game.
Realistic expectation: Nine victories and a conference-title appearance. Beating James Madison would give the Aztecs one of the Group of Six race’s most valuable head-to-head results.
The American Conference contenders
Navy Midshipmen
Projected record: 9-3
National-title odds: +90000
Navy enters as one of the American Conference favorites after coaching changes and transfer losses weakened many of its leading competitors.
Quarterback Braxton Woodson must replace longtime starter Blake Horvath. That transition is significant because Navy’s option-based attack depends heavily on quarterback decision-making, ball security and experience.
The Midshipmen remain insulated from the roster upheaval affecting other American programs. They do not depend heavily on the transfer portal and should maintain greater continuity than Memphis, Tulane, South Florida or North Texas.
Games against Air Force, Army and conference contenders will shape Navy’s résumé. The annual Army-Navy game occurs after the playoff field is selected and therefore cannot help Navy earn the berth.
Realistic expectation: Nine wins and a place in the American Championship Game. Navy needs Woodson to mature quickly.
UTSA Roadrunners
Projected record: 9-3
National-title odds: Off board
UTSA has a rare advantage in a conference filled with transition: The Roadrunners retained both coach Jeff Traylor and starting quarterback Owen McCown.
McCown’s experience should stabilize an offense replacing several of its top receivers. The defense faces an even larger reconstruction after losing most of its established contributors.
UTSA also lost several important players to Power Four programs, including receiver Devin McCuin, defensive lineman Kenny Ozowalu and safety Jimmy Wyrick. That makes the Roadrunners less complete than their coaching continuity might suggest.
Still, Traylor’s program should be organized and competitive while several opponents install new systems and integrate massive transfer classes.
Realistic expectation: Nine wins and American title contention. UTSA must improve after consecutive 7-6 seasons before it can become the committee’s preferred Group of Six team.
Texas State Bobcats
Projected record: 9-3
National-title odds: Off board
Texas State enters the Pac-12 with a proven coach-quarterback combination and the potential to become one of the season’s surprise teams.
G.J. Kinne returns with quarterback Brad Jackson and receivers Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. That continuity should give the Bobcats one of the conference’s most productive offenses.
The defense presents greater concern, particularly in the secondary and along the line. Texas State cannot afford to depend entirely on winning high-scoring games against Boise State, San Diego State and Washington State.
The schedule includes a major opportunity at Texas, followed by a conference slate that gives the Bobcats several chances to record quality wins. A competitive performance against Texas would help; an upset would transform the entire Group of Six race.
Realistic expectation: Nine wins and Pac-12 contention. Texas State has more playoff upside than its preseason national profile suggests.
Memphis Tigers
Projected record: 8-4
National-title odds: +100000
Memphis may be the most influential team in the Group of Six race even if it does not reach the playoff itself.
The Tigers face UNLV in Week 0 and Boise State in Week 2 before meeting Navy during conference play. Those games cross three conferences and could establish critical head-to-head comparisons.
New coach Charles Huff inherited a roster requiring more than 50 incoming transfers after Ryan Silverfield left for Arkansas and brought several players with him. The overhaul creates enormous uncertainty but also gives Memphis a chance to rebuild quickly with experienced additions.
The Tigers’ national path requires immediate chemistry. Losing to both UNLV and Boise State would effectively eliminate Memphis and strengthen two direct competitors.
Realistic expectation: Eight wins during a transition season. Memphis is talented enough to shape the playoff race even if its own résumé falls short.
Other credible conference champions
New Mexico Lobos
Projected record: 9-3
National-title odds: +80000
New Mexico enters as a legitimate Mountain West contender rather than a speculative long shot.
The Lobos benefit from a manageable schedule and the absence of Boise State from the conference. Home games against North Dakota State and other leading challengers will determine whether New Mexico can reach the championship game.
To earn the playoff berth, the Lobos likely need a conference championship and at least 10 victories. Their schedule does not provide enough national opportunities to overcome multiple losses.
Realistic expectation: Nine wins and a possible Mountain West title-game appearance.
Liberty Flames
Projected record: 10-2
National-title odds: Off board
Liberty remains the most likely Conference USA team to enter the national playoff discussion.
The Flames begin at James Madison, immediately giving them an opportunity to defeat the Sun Belt favorite. A victory would provide a résumé advantage that no remaining Conference USA game could match.
The problem is schedule strength. Liberty must dominate league play and finish with 10 or 11 wins because Conference USA offers fewer opportunities for ranked victories than the American, Pac-12 or Mountain West.
A loss at James Madison would not eliminate the Flames, but it would leave them dependent on extensive chaos elsewhere.
Realistic expectation: Ten wins and a Conference USA championship. Liberty probably needs to beat James Madison to become the leading Group of Six candidate.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Projected record: 9-3
National-title odds: +100000
Hawaii has a realistic path to the Mountain West championship because several of its most important games will be played in Honolulu.
The Rainbow Warriors host North Dakota State and benefit from the travel demands opponents face when making the trip to the islands. Their offense should score enough to compete with the conference’s leading teams.
Hawaii’s playoff problem is similar to New Mexico’s: The résumé probably requires a conference title and no more than one loss. A two- or three-loss champion would struggle to finish ahead of Boise State, James Madison or the American champion.
Realistic expectation: Nine wins and Mountain West contention, although a playoff berth requires an exceptional finish.
Western Michigan Broncos
Projected record: 10-2
National-title odds: Off board
Western Michigan represents the MAC’s strongest preseason playoff possibility.
The conference’s comparatively low national profile means the Broncos will need to dominate their schedule. Ten wins may not be sufficient if the Pac-12, Mountain West or American champion owns stronger nonconference victories.
Western Michigan’s formula must include a conference championship, excellent point differential and success in every notable nonconference opportunity.
Realistic expectation: Ten wins and a MAC championship. The Broncos need help from losses elsewhere to climb above the other Group of Six champions.
Washington State Cougars
Projected record: 8-4
National-title odds: +100000
Washington State begins a new coaching era under Kirby Moore in a deeper and more stable Pac-12.
Moore’s offensive background should help the Cougars remain productive, but a reconstructed roster and demanding schedule make a playoff run difficult. Washington State travels to Kansas State and faces Boise State, San Diego State, Oregon State and Texas State in conference play.
The Cougars can remain in the race by winning the Kansas State game and entering Pac-12 competition with momentum. At 8-4, however, they would need to win the conference championship and benefit from considerable chaos elsewhere.
Realistic expectation: Eight wins and Pac-12 contention. Washington State is a conference-title threat but a secondary playoff candidate.
Projected order of non-Power Four playoff contenders
| Rank | Team | Conference/status | Projected record | National-title odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Notre Dame | Independent | 11-1 | +600 |
| 2 | UNLV | Mountain West | 10-2 | +80000 |
| 3 | North Dakota State | Mountain West | 10-2 | +100000 |
| 4 | James Madison | Sun Belt | 10-2 | Off board |
| 5 | Boise State | Pac-12 | 9-3 | +70000 |
| 6 | San Diego State | Pac-12 | 9-3 | +80000 |
| 7 | Navy | American | 9-3 | +90000 |
| 8 | UTSA | American | 9-3 | Off board |
| 9 | Texas State | Pac-12 | 9-3 | Off board |
| 10 | New Mexico | Mountain West | 9-3 | +80000 |
| 11 | Liberty | Conference USA | 10-2 | Off board |
| 12 | Hawaii | Mountain West | 9-3 | +100000 |
| 13 | Western Michigan | MAC | 10-2 | Off board |
| 14 | Memphis | American | 8-4 | +100000 |
| 15 | Washington State | Pac-12 | 8-4 | +100000 |
Games that could decide the Group of Six berth
Several early nonconference games will function as playoff eliminators or résumé tiebreakers:
- Memphis at UNLV: The Week 0 result will immediately strengthen either the American or Mountain West.
- Boise State at Oregon: A Boise State upset would likely make the Broncos the Group of Six favorite regardless of later conference comparisons.
- Liberty at James Madison: The Conference USA and Sun Belt favorites meet before either begins league play.
- Memphis at Boise State: Memphis can reshape the entire race, while Boise State cannot afford a home loss after facing Oregon.
- James Madison at San Diego State: This may become the most important head-to-head comparison between two eventual conference champions.
- North Dakota State at UNLV: The Mountain West’s established contender hosts its newly promoted national powerhouse.
- Texas State at Texas: An upset would give the Bobcats the best nonconference victory among Group of Six teams.
- San Diego State at Boise State: The winner may secure a place in the Pac-12 Championship Game—and possibly the playoff.
Final analysis
Notre Dame belongs in a separate category. The Fighting Irish are expected to reach the playoff and have a realistic chance to win the national championship.
The Group of Six race is far less predictable.
UNLV has the cleanest path because it no longer shares a conference with Boise State and owns several respectable nonconference opportunities. North Dakota State possesses the culture and physicality to challenge immediately, but its schedule may require near-perfection.
Boise State is the highest-rated team of the group and plays the strongest schedule. That strength could help the Broncos at 10-2, but it also makes accumulating 10 wins more difficult. James Madison and San Diego State control an important head-to-head opportunity, while Navy and UTSA benefit from unprecedented turnover across the American.
The committee’s decision may ultimately involve teams with very different résumés: a one-loss MAC or Conference USA champion, a two-loss Mountain West winner and a three-loss Pac-12 team with better victories.
In that comparison, record alone will not settle the debate. Conference championships, schedule strength and direct results against other contenders will determine which program receives college football’s final guaranteed invitation.
