Big 12 Football Preview: Texas Tech Leads College Football’s Most Unpredictable Conference

The defending champion Red Raiders enter 2026 as the clear favorite, but BYU, Utah, Houston, Kansas State and a deep collection of challengers make the Big 12 race difficult to forecast.

The Big 12 enters the 2026 college football season with a dominant favorite, several credible challengers and the same unpredictability that has defined the conference since its latest expansion.

Defending champion Texas Tech begins the year ranked No. 12 in the Associated Press poll after winning 11 regular-season games and reaching the College Football Playoff. The Red Raiders are joined by No. 14 BYU, No. 21 Utah and No. 23 Houston in the preseason Top 25. Arizona, TCU and Oklahoma State also received votes. Big 12 Conference

Texas Tech stands apart in the championship market. The Red Raiders are odds-on favorites to win the conference, with BYU and Utah representing the closest challengers. The separation reflects Texas Tech’s roster investment, returning experience and success in the transfer portal.

The rest of the conference is far less orderly. Arizona and Houston won nine regular-season games in 2025. BYU remains one of the league’s most physical and consistent teams. Kansas State has a dynamic quarterback and an unusually favorable schedule. Oklahoma State begins an intriguing rebuild, while TCU and Arizona State possess enough offensive potential to reach the championship game.

The conference’s preseason media survey placed Texas Tech first and BYU second, followed by Arizona and Houston in a tie for third. Utah, TCU, Arizona State and Kansas State completed the top half. Only 12 points separated Arizona State in seventh from Kansas State in eighth. Deseret News

National-title odds below are a DraftKings snapshot listed by ESPN on Aug. 24, 2026. Futures prices change frequently and may vary by sportsbook and location. ESPN/DraftKings futures

The defending champion and clear favorite

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Projected record: 11-1
National-title odds: +2200

Texas Tech has followed its first Big 12 championship and playoff appearance with another aggressive offseason.

Cincinnati transfer Brendan Sorsby takes over at quarterback as one of the nation’s highest-rated portal additions. His experience, mobility and production should allow the Red Raiders to remain explosive despite changing starters at the sport’s most important position.

Texas Tech also added defensive linemen Mateen Ibirogba, Trey White and Adam Trick to a roster returning 14 starters. The program’s financial commitment to player retention and portal recruiting has produced the conference’s deepest collection of talent.

The schedule strengthens the case for another championship run. Texas Tech avoids BYU, Utah and Kansas State during the regular season. Its most difficult conference games—Arizona, Arizona State, Houston, TCU and West Virginia—are all manageable for a roster of this quality.

The Red Raiders outscored their 10 Big 12 opponents by an average of 27.1 points last season, demonstrating that their title was not the product of a few fortunate finishes. ESPN Big 12 preview

Realistic expectation: Eleven wins, another trip to Arlington and a second consecutive playoff appearance. Reaching the national semifinals is possible if Sorsby settles quickly.

The leading challengers

BYU Cougars

Projected record: 10-2
National-title odds: +9000

BYU has become one of the Big 12’s most dependable programs through physical defense, efficient offense and a significant home-field advantage.

The Cougars begin the season ranked No. 14 and carry the second-shortest odds to win the conference. Their roster may not contain as many high-profile transfers as Texas Tech’s, but BYU has developed enough depth to withstand the demands of a nine-game league schedule.

Defense should again establish the team’s floor. The Cougars rarely allow opponents to remain comfortable, particularly at LaVell Edwards Stadium, where altitude, crowd noise and late kickoffs can become significant factors.

BYU avoids Texas Tech during the regular season, creating a realistic path to 10 victories and a championship-game appearance. Games against Utah, TCU, Arizona and Kansas will determine whether the Cougars can capitalize.

Realistic expectation: Ten wins and a trip to Arlington. BYU has a viable playoff path, although an at-large berth could be difficult without reaching the conference title game.

Utah Utes

Projected record: 9-3
National-title odds: +11000

Utah enters a new era after Kyle Whittingham stepped down and accepted the Michigan job.

Morgan Scalley, Whittingham’s longtime defensive coordinator, takes over a program whose identity is already aligned with his approach. The Utes should remain physical, disciplined and difficult to score against.

The larger question involves offensive consistency. Utah has too often asked its defense to compensate for quarterback injuries and limited passing production. The program needs a healthy, reliable quarterback and more explosive plays from its skill positions.

Utah’s ability to manage the coaching transition should not be underestimated. Scalley understands the roster, culture and recruiting operation, reducing the disruption commonly associated with a new head coach.

Realistic expectation: Nine wins and conference-title contention. Utah may lose a game or two because of its offense, but it remains one of the Big 12’s safest projections.

Houston Cougars

Projected record: 9-3
National-title odds: +30000

Houston’s rise under Willie Fritz has moved the Cougars from rebuilding project to preseason Top 25 team.

Quarterback Conner Weigman returns after leading Houston to nine regular-season victories. A preseason muscle strain temporarily limited him in practice, but Fritz said he returned to full participation before the opener. Houston Chronicle

Receiver Stephon Johnson also rejoined the roster after receiving an additional season of eligibility. Johnson has recorded 69 receptions for 954 yards and five touchdowns during his Houston career, although he must work back into the offense after missing spring practice and much of preseason camp.

Fritz’s teams traditionally improve through line development, special teams and disciplined situational football. The Cougars may not possess Texas Tech’s depth, but they are unlikely to beat themselves.

Realistic expectation: Nine wins and a serious opportunity to reach Arlington. Keeping Weigman healthy is essential.

Kansas State Wildcats

Projected record: 9-3
National-title odds: +40000

Kansas State may be the Big 12’s most appealing dark horse.

New coach Collin Klein returns to Manhattan with quarterback Avery Johnson, whose dual-threat ability fits naturally within Klein’s offense. Johnson’s experience, combined with a physical running game, gives Kansas State a style capable of traveling throughout the conference.

Receiver Jaron Tibbs returns after leading the Wildcats with 47 receptions for 595 yards last season. His size, reliability and blocking make him particularly valuable in an offense built around play-action and quarterback movement.

The schedule is the largest source of optimism. Kansas State avoids Texas Tech, BYU and Utah and may be favored in all but one regular-season game. New York Post

Realistic expectation: Nine wins, with 10 or 11 possible if Johnson flourishes under Klein. The Wildcats have a legitimate chance to win the conference despite their long national-title odds.

The dangerous second tier

TCU Horned Frogs

Projected record: 8-4
National-title odds: +25000

TCU offers one of the conference’s highest ceilings outside the leading five teams.

The Horned Frogs have recruited aggressively through the transfer portal and possess enough skill talent to create matchup problems. Their primary task is turning individual ability into consistent performance across 12 games.

TCU opens against North Carolina in Dublin, creating an unusual first test before returning to the conference race. The schedule includes BYU, Utah, Kansas State and a trip to Texas Tech.

The Horned Frogs have finished 8-4 in consecutive regular seasons. Moving beyond that level will require better defensive consistency and fewer costly turnovers.

Realistic expectation: Eight wins and a quality bowl appearance. TCU can reach Arlington if its transfers produce immediate results.

Arizona Wildcats

Projected record: 8-4
National-title odds: +35000

Arizona enters the season just outside the Top 25 after winning nine regular-season games in 2025.

Quarterback Noah Fifita provides the Wildcats with proven experience and leadership. His anticipation and accuracy allow Arizona to attack quickly, while running-back transfers Ismail Mahdi and Quincy Craig add options to the ground game.

Arizona’s challenge is replacing production around Fifita without becoming overly dependent on him. The defense must also create more disruption against the conference’s elite offenses.

The Wildcats face Texas Tech but avoid enough other top contenders to remain in the championship race deep into the season.

Realistic expectation: Eight wins, with nine possible if the reworked running game takes pressure off Fifita.

Arizona State Sun Devils

Projected record: 8-4
National-title odds: +30000

Arizona State has outperformed preseason expectations in each of the past two seasons, making another middle-of-the-pack projection dangerous.

The Sun Devils play with the physicality and confidence required to win close games. Their schedule contains few automatic losses but numerous toss-ups, including Baylor, BYU, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M and UCF.

That creates a wide range of outcomes. Arizona State could reach the championship game if it repeatedly closes tight games, but it could also finish 6-6 without playing significantly worse.

Realistic expectation: Eight wins and another bowl appearance. The Sun Devils remain a difficult team to place because nearly every major game appears competitive.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Projected record: 7-5
National-title odds: +40000

Oklahoma State begins one of the country’s most intriguing rebuilding projects under Eric Morris.

Morris arrives from North Texas after overseeing one of college football’s most productive offenses. Quarterback Drew Mestemaker, a breakout freshman in Morris’ system, followed him to Stillwater and could become one of the Big 12’s most exciting players.

The Cowboys also return substantial defensive production and used the portal to overhaul a roster that had fallen sharply during Mike Gundy’s final seasons. Improvement should be immediate, but Oregon and Texas Tech represent significant challenges.

Oklahoma State’s combination of a new offensive system, an emerging quarterback and a favorable group of toss-up games makes the Cowboys a dangerous long shot.

Realistic expectation: Seven wins during Morris’ debut. Eight or nine are possible if Mestemaker’s production transfers smoothly to the Big 12.

Bowl contenders with upset potential

UCF Knights

Projected record: 7-5
National-title odds: +80000

Scott Frost enters the second season of his second UCF tenure with more stability and a favorable schedule.

James Madison transfer Alonza Barnett III, the 2025 Sun Belt Player of the Year, takes over at quarterback. His dual-threat ability should give Frost more freedom to revive the fast, aggressive offense associated with his earlier UCF teams.

The offensive line was largely rebuilt through the portal, making chemistry an early concern. Defensively, the Knights return an experienced secondary and leading tackler Lewis Carter at linebacker.

UCF returns approximately 75 percent of its production and brings back all three coordinators. That continuity provides a strong foundation for improvement after a 5-7 season. Underdog Dynasty

Realistic expectation: Seven wins and UCF’s first winning season since joining the Big 12. An outside run at the championship game is possible if Barnett elevates the offense.

Baylor Bears

Projected record: 6-6
National-title odds: +70000

Baylor enters another season with little margin between success and disappointment.

The Bears have enough size and experience to compete with the conference’s middle class, but offensive inconsistency has prevented them from building sustained momentum. Improved quarterback play and protection are essential.

A neutral-site opener against Auburn gives Baylor an immediate opportunity to establish credibility. The Big 12 schedule includes Texas Tech, Arizona State, Houston, Kansas and TCU.

Realistic expectation: Six wins and bowl eligibility. Baylor’s season will likely depend on its performance in four or five one-score games.

Kansas Jayhawks

Projected record: 6-6
National-title odds: +80000

Kansas has rebuilt its backfield around transfers Dylan Edwards, Yasin Willis and Jalen Dupree. Edwards and Willis both appear on the Doak Walker Award watch list.

The Jayhawks were also exploring the potential addition of former UCLA and SMU runner TJ Harden, who accumulated more than 2,400 rushing yards during his college career before briefly entering the NFL. Rock Chalk Talk

Lance Leipold’s offensive system should create rushing opportunities, but Kansas must become more consistent at quarterback and on defense. The schedule contains several manageable games but few automatic victories after nonconference meetings with LIU and Middle Tennessee.

Realistic expectation: Six wins and a bowl berth. Kansas has enough offensive potential to upset a ranked opponent but not enough defensive certainty to project much higher.

West Virginia Mountaineers

Projected record: 6-6
National-title odds: +80000

West Virginia remains a difficult program to evaluate because of the continuing roster transformation under Rich Rodriguez.

The Mountaineers have recruited aggressively, signing one of the conference’s largest classes of incoming players. That volume creates competition and improves depth, but it also introduces uncertainty about chemistry and lineup stability.

Rodriguez wants an offense built around tempo, quarterback movement and a productive rushing attack. West Virginia will be dangerous if the offensive line allows that identity to develop.

The schedule includes Texas Tech, BYU, Utah, TCU and several conference toss-ups.

Realistic expectation: Six wins and bowl eligibility. The Mountaineers could exceed expectations if their many new players settle into defined roles quickly.

Teams facing difficult climbs

Cincinnati Bearcats

Projected record: 5-7
National-title odds: +80000

Cincinnati must replace quarterback Brendan Sorsby, who transferred to conference favorite Texas Tech.

Losing a proven starter to a direct competitor highlights the challenge facing programs in the transfer era. The Bearcats must rebuild their offense while continuing to improve a defense that showed progress but lacked consistency.

A home game against Boston College offers an important early opportunity. The Big 12 schedule is less forgiving, and Cincinnati cannot afford extended uncertainty at quarterback.

Realistic expectation: Five wins. Bowl eligibility is possible if the new quarterback provides stability and the defense forces more turnovers.

Colorado Buffaloes

Projected record: 5-7
National-title odds: +70000

Colorado returns a large percentage of its production but remains in search of the consistent line play needed to rise through the conference.

The Buffaloes have continued adding talent through the portal, and their offensive skill positions should create occasional explosive performances. The central questions remain pass protection, rushing efficiency and defensive depth.

Colorado plays Texas Tech and Utah but also receives several winnable conference games. The Buffaloes must establish a sustainable identity beyond relying on individual playmakers.

Realistic expectation: Five wins, with bowl eligibility possible if the offensive line improves.

Iowa State Cyclones

Projected record: 5-7
National-title odds: +90000

Iowa State begins a new era after Matt Campbell left for Penn State.

Jimmy Rogers takes over following his own rise through the coaching profession and inherits a roster returning a considerable amount of production. However, Campbell brought more than 20 former Cyclones with him to Penn State, leaving Iowa State with less proven talent than the raw returning-production figures initially suggested.

The Cyclones should remain organized and difficult to beat at Jack Trice Stadium. Their offensive ceiling, quarterback development and pass rush are more uncertain.

Games against Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Utah and road trips to Arizona and BYU create a difficult path.

Realistic expectation: Five wins during the transition. Iowa State may need a year to rebuild its roster and establish Rogers’ identity.

Projected Big 12 order of finish

Rank	Team	Projected record	National-title odds
1	Texas Tech	11-1	+2200
2	BYU	10-2	+9000
3	Utah	9-3	+11000
4	Houston	9-3	+30000
5	Kansas State	9-3	+40000
6	TCU	8-4	+25000
7	Arizona	8-4	+35000
8	Arizona State	8-4	+30000
9	Oklahoma State	7-5	+40000
10	UCF	7-5	+80000
11	Baylor	6-6	+70000
12	Kansas	6-6	+80000
13	West Virginia	6-6	+80000
14	Cincinnati	5-7	+80000
15	Colorado	5-7	+70000
16	Iowa State	5-7	+90000

Final analysis

Texas Tech deserves its position as the clear favorite. The Red Raiders have the conference’s deepest roster, an experienced transfer quarterback and a schedule that avoids three of their strongest potential challengers.

The uncertainty begins immediately after them.

BYU may be the safest alternative because of its defense, consistency and schedule. Utah should retain its physical identity under Scalley. Houston has a proven quarterback and one of the conference’s best coaches, while Kansas State may benefit from the league’s most favorable schedule.

TCU, Arizona and Arizona State are capable of reaching Arlington without entering the year as leading favorites. Oklahoma State and UCF have the quarterbacks and coaching changes required to produce rapid improvement.

The conference’s depth could complicate its national playoff ambitions. Texas Tech has a realistic chance to earn an at-large bid even if it loses the championship game. Most other Big 12 teams may need to win the conference to qualify.

That makes every September and October defeat consequential. In a league where nearly every team can threaten an upset, the eventual champion may not be the most talented roster. It may simply be the team that survives the Big 12’s weekly uncertainty with the fewest mistakes.