Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana Lead College Football’s Deepest Conference
The Big Ten has captured three consecutive national championships, but a crowded field of contenders and an unforgiving schedule could make the 2026 race its most demanding yet.
The Big Ten enters the 2026 college football season in an unfamiliar but commanding position: Everybody else is chasing it.
Michigan, Ohio State and Indiana have given the conference three different national champions in three seasons. Now the league begins its pursuit of a fourth consecutive title with the top two teams in the preseason Associated Press poll, three teams in the top six and eight in the Top 25.
Ohio State opens at No. 1, followed by No. 2 Oregon and defending national champion Indiana at No. 6. USC, Michigan, Washington, Penn State and Iowa also appear in the preseason rankings. It is the first time in 65 years that Big Ten teams have occupied the first two spots in the preseason poll. Associated Press
The conference’s strength at the top is undeniable. Its larger question is whether the middle class can keep pace. Computer projections and betting markets identify Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana as the leading championship candidates, followed by a second tier containing USC, Michigan, Penn State and Washington.
The separation after those seven teams is considerable. Still, Iowa’s defense, Nebraska’s returning experience, UCLA’s offensive potential and the general unpredictability of the transfer-portal era leave room for surprises.
National-title odds below are a DraftKings snapshot listed by ESPN on Aug. 23, 2026. Odds can change quickly and may vary by sportsbook and location. Teams not quoted on that board are designated “off board.” ESPN/DraftKings futures
The championship favorites
Ohio State Buckeyes
Projected record: 10-2
National-title odds: +600
Ohio State has the best roster in the conference and perhaps the country, but its schedule makes an undefeated season unlikely. Quarterback Julian Sayin returns after emerging as a Heisman finalist, while receiver Jeremiah Smith gives the Buckeyes college football’s most dangerous individual matchup.
Ryan Day must replace several important contributors, particularly on defense, but years of elite recruiting give Ohio State fewer immediate depth concerns than nearly every other program. The offensive line is experienced, the defense remains loaded with blue-chip talent and the Buckeyes should possess enough explosiveness to escape difficult games.
The problem is a schedule featuring Texas, Indiana and Oregon before the annual showdown with Michigan. Ohio State can lose twice and still reach the College Football Playoff, but merely surviving that gauntlet will require health, depth and consistent quarterback play. ESPN’s preseason Football Power Index and SP+ both place the Buckeyes at or near the top of the national hierarchy. ESPN FPI
Realistic expectation: A Big Ten Championship Game appearance and a top-four playoff seed are attainable, but the schedule leaves little margin for an off week.
Oregon Ducks
Projected record: 11-1
National-title odds: +750
Oregon may have the conference’s most complete combination of continuity, skill talent and defensive depth. Quarterback Dante Moore returns to an offense featuring receivers Dakorien Moore, Evan Stewart and Jeremiah McClellan, plus promising running backs Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr.
The defensive front, led by Matayo Uiagalelei, A’Mauri Washington and Teitum Tuioti, has the size and athleticism to control games. Minnesota safety transfer Koi Perich joins Brandon Finney Jr. in a potentially dominant secondary.
Oregon has lost only three games since joining the Big Ten, with all three coming against the eventual national champion. That suggests Dan Lanning’s program no longer needs to prove it belongs among the elite; it needs to finish the job. The Ducks possess a slightly more manageable path than Ohio State and have enough offensive firepower to compensate for occasional defensive lapses.
Realistic expectation: Eleven wins, a return to Indianapolis and a serious opportunity to claim the first national championship in program history.
Indiana Hoosiers
Projected record: 10-2
National-title odds: +900
Indiana’s 16-0 championship season transformed the program from a national curiosity into one of the sport’s established powers. Curt Cignetti now faces a different challenge: sustaining success after losing Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza and standout receivers Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr.
TCU transfer Josh Hoover takes over at quarterback and should keep the passing game productive. Receivers Charlie Becker and Michigan State transfer Nick Marsh give Hoover proven targets, while Indiana’s offensive line and Bryant Haines’ disciplined defense provide a strong foundation.
The Hoosiers will not reproduce everything that went right during their unbeaten season, but dismissing them as a one-year wonder would ignore Cignetti’s record of development, roster evaluation and portal management. Indiana is priced alongside the sport’s most credible championship contenders for a reason.
Realistic expectation: A modest regular-season step backward, but another playoff berth and a legitimate chance to defend the conference title.
The playoff challengers
USC Trojans
Projected record: 9-3
National-title odds: +3500
USC has the offense to reach the playoff. Whether it gets there will depend on a defense that has too often turned promising seasons into disappointments.
Quarterback Jayden Maiava leads a team returning an FBS-high 15 starters. Lincoln Riley has upgraded the offensive line and assembled enough perimeter talent to keep USC among the nation’s highest-scoring teams.
The major change comes on defense, where former TCU coach Gary Patterson takes over as coordinator. Patterson’s history of producing aggressive, adaptable defenses makes him an intriguing addition, but improvement must appear quickly against a schedule that includes Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, Washington and Penn State.
Realistic expectation: Nine victories and playoff contention into November. If Patterson produces even an above-average defense, USC’s ceiling rises significantly.
Michigan Wolverines
Projected record: 8-4
National-title odds: +4000
Michigan begins a new era under Kyle Whittingham, who arrives after winning 177 games and three conference championships during his tenure at Utah.
Whittingham inherits a roster suited to his preferred identity: physical lines, a defense capable of controlling the point of attack and a running game built around Jordan Marshall. Sophomore quarterback Bryce Underwood and receiver Andrew Marsh supply the offensive upside.
The question is whether Michigan can create enough explosive plays against elite opponents. Underwood’s development will determine whether the Wolverines are simply a difficult team to beat or a genuine playoff threat. A demanding schedule and a new coaching system make an immediate championship run ambitious, even with considerable talent.
Realistic expectation: Eight wins during the transition, with the potential for nine or 10 if Underwood takes a major step forward.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Projected record: 9-3
National-title odds: +6500
Matt Campbell begins his Penn State tenure with a roster constructed differently from the one James Franklin left behind. Campbell brought 24 former Iowa State players to Happy Valley, including quarterback Rocco Becht and running back Carson Hansen.
The massive transfer influx should ease the transition because the newcomers already understand Campbell’s culture and systems. Experienced offensive lineman Anthony Donkoh and linebacker Tony Rojas provide important continuity.
Penn State’s schedule includes a defining run against USC, Michigan and Washington. The Nittany Lions appear capable of winning nine games, but the national-title market reflects uncertainty surrounding a first-year coach, a reconstructed roster and a program coming off a turbulent season. A playoff berth at +360 has attracted more interest than its championship price. FOX Sports
Realistic expectation: A successful first season under Campbell, likely ending near the playoff bubble.
Washington Huskies
Projected record: 9-3
National-title odds: +12000
Washington’s path begins with quarterback Demond Williams Jr., one of the country’s most dangerous dual-threat players. Williams passed for more than 3,000 yards, threw 25 touchdowns and added 611 rushing yards last season.
An experienced offensive line and receivers Dezmen Roebuck and Christian Moss should allow Jedd Fisch to attack defenses in multiple ways. Oregon transfer Jayden Limar adds another option in the backfield.
Washington’s concerns center on its pass rush and cornerback depth. Linebackers Xe’ree Alexander and Jacob Manu, along with safety Alex McLaughlin, give the defense experience through the middle. Home games against Iowa, Penn State and Indiana provide opportunities to build a playoff résumé.
Realistic expectation: Nine wins and meaningful November football, with Williams giving the Huskies upset potential against any opponent.
The dangerous middle
Iowa Hawkeyes
Projected record: 8-4
National-title odds: +14000
Iowa’s formula remains familiar: control field position, protect the football and force opponents to earn every yard against an elite defense.
Defensive backs Zach Lutmer and Deshaun Lee and linebacker Jayden Montgomery lead another veteran group. Special teams should again be an advantage, but Iowa’s ceiling depends upon producing a functional passing game.
The Hawkeyes do not need a top-25 offense to win eight or nine games. They simply need one capable of avoiding repeated three-and-outs against the conference’s elite teams.
Realistic expectation: Eight wins and a quality bowl, with an outside playoff chance if the offense exceeds expectations.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Projected record: 7-5
National-title odds: +50000
Illinois must replace quarterback Luke Altmyer and several of the central figures who helped produce consecutive successful seasons. Senior transfer Katin Houser takes over the offense, while new defensive coordinator Bobby Hauck is installing a more aggressive 3-3-5 system.
Safety Matthew Bailey, a two-time All-Big Ten selection who led Illinois in tackles during each of the past two seasons, provides a centerpiece for the defense. The schedule, however, includes Ohio State, Oregon and Iowa.
Bret Bielema has established a high floor in Champaign, but replacing so much proven production while facing multiple ranked opponents makes another nine-win season unlikely.
Realistic expectation: Bowl eligibility and seven wins would represent a solid reload.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Projected record: 7-5
National-title odds: +60000
Nebraska ranked near the top nationally in returning production during the spring, bringing back approximately 69 percent of its statistical output. That continuity creates pressure for the Cornhuskers to move beyond the six- or seven-win range. ESPN returning production
Anthony Colandrea gives Nebraska experience at quarterback, but the larger issue is whether Matt Rhule’s team can consistently finish close games. The program has improved its depth and physicality; now it must translate those gains into a better conference record.
Realistic expectation: Seven wins and a bowl appearance, with eight possible if Nebraska finally becomes dependable in one-score games.
Wisconsin Badgers
Projected record: 7-5
National-title odds: +60000
Wisconsin enters a pivotal season needing tangible progress. The Badgers still possess enough size and developmental potential to create problems, but recent teams have lacked the offensive consistency and defensive dominance associated with the program’s best years.
The schedule provides several winnable games, and the betting market places Wisconsin’s total at 6½ victories. That is a fair dividing line for a team capable of reaching eight wins but also vulnerable to another uneven season.
Realistic expectation: Seven wins should be the standard. Falling short of bowl eligibility would intensify questions about the program’s direction.
UCLA Bruins
Projected record: 7-5
National-title odds: +75000
UCLA returns substantial offensive production and has enough experience to become one of the conference’s more notable risers. The Bruins ranked among the national leaders in returning offensive output during offseason projections.
The challenge is turning continuity into efficiency. UCLA must reduce negative plays, improve in the trenches and handle the physical demands of a Big Ten schedule. Games against Oregon, Michigan and USC sharply limit the margin for error.
Realistic expectation: Bowl eligibility with a chance to reach seven or eight wins if the veteran offense becomes more consistent.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Projected record: 6-6
National-title odds: +80000
Minnesota returns approximately 68 percent of its production, including a large share of its offensive contributors. That experience should help P.J. Fleck maintain the Gophers’ usual physical, low-variance identity.
The concern is whether Minnesota can generate enough explosive offense to separate from the crowded middle of the conference. The Gophers are rarely an easy opponent, but a schedule featuring Michigan and Washington may keep them close to .500.
Realistic expectation: Six wins and a bowl berth, with seven possible if the offense becomes more dynamic.
Northwestern Wildcats
Projected record: 6-6
National-title odds: +80000
Northwestern enters the season with a reasonable opportunity to reach bowl eligibility. The Wildcats return useful experience and face several opponents from the conference’s lower tier.
Their challenge is sustaining offense over 12 games. Northwestern can defend well enough to remain competitive, but it cannot continually ask the defense to win games with little scoring support.
Realistic expectation: A 6-6 finish would represent a successful season; five wins is equally plausible if the offense stalls.
Rebuilding and searching for a breakthrough
Maryland Terrapins
Projected record: 5-7
National-title odds: Off board
Maryland brings back more production than almost any team in the country, led by sophomore quarterback Malik Washington, running back DeJuan Williams and linebacker Daniel Wingate. Washington’s dual-threat ability gives the Terrapins a potential building block after consecutive 4-8 seasons.
The offense must replace much of its receiving corps, while the defensive line returns only one starter. A favorable early schedule offers Maryland an opportunity to build confidence before conference play becomes more difficult.
The statistical experience is encouraging, but returning production from a four-win team does not automatically produce a contender.
Realistic expectation: Five wins, with bowl eligibility possible if Washington develops and the reconstructed lines hold up.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Projected record: 5-7
National-title odds: +80000
Rutgers expects to score more consistently, but Greg Schiano has been direct about the program’s primary concern: The defense must improve.
The Scarlet Knights face one of the conference’s more manageable schedules, with Wisconsin, Northwestern, Maryland and Michigan State among the winnable league games. That gives Rutgers a plausible path to six victories even while it sorts through a quarterback competition.
Realistic expectation: Five wins, with bowl eligibility likely to depend on beating several teams in the same competitive tier.
Michigan State Spartans
Projected record: 4-8
National-title odds: Off board
Pat Fitzgerald inherits a Michigan State program attempting another reset following the dismissal of Jonathan Smith. Fitzgerald’s history suggests the Spartans will eventually become more organized and difficult to play, but the roster still requires significant development.
The defense needs greater consistency, and the offense must establish a reliable quarterback and identity. Fitzgerald can improve the team’s competitiveness immediately, but expecting a rapid climb in such a deep conference would be premature.
Realistic expectation: Four wins during the first stage of a multiyear rebuild.
Purdue Boilermakers
Projected record: 3-9
National-title odds: Off board
Purdue failed to win a conference game in Barry Odom’s first season and remains near the beginning of a substantial reconstruction.
The Boilermakers should be more competitive and have winnable home games against Maryland and Minnesota. Their overall depth, however, still trails most of the conference. The betting market set Purdue’s win total at 3½, the lowest in the Big Ten. BetMGM win totals
Realistic expectation: Three wins and visible progress would be more important than bowl eligibility.
Projected Big Ten order of finish
| Rank | Team | Projected record | National-title odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oregon | 11-1 | +750 |
| 2 | Ohio State | 10-2 | +600 |
| 3 | Indiana | 10-2 | +900 |
| 4 | USC | 9-3 | +3500 |
| 5 | Penn State | 9-3 | +6500 |
| 6 | Washington | 9-3 | +12000 |
| 7 | Michigan | 8-4 | +4000 |
| 8 | Iowa | 8-4 | +14000 |
| 9 | Illinois | 7-5 | +50000 |
| 10 | Nebraska | 7-5 | +60000 |
| 11 | Wisconsin | 7-5 | +60000 |
| 12 | UCLA | 7-5 | +75000 |
| 13 | Minnesota | 6-6 | +80000 |
| 14 | Northwestern | 6-6 | +80000 |
| 15 | Maryland | 5-7 | Off board |
| 16 | Rutgers | 5-7 | +80000 |
| 17 | Michigan State | 4-8 | Off board |
| 18 | Purdue | 3-9 | Off board |
Final analysis
Oregon receives the narrow preseason nod because it combines an elite quarterback, roster continuity and a slightly cleaner path through the schedule. Ohio State may be the best team on a neutral field, but games against Texas, Indiana, Oregon and Michigan make a perfect regular season difficult to project.
Indiana should remain a playoff contender despite losing Mendoza, while USC, Michigan, Penn State and Washington form a dangerous second tier. Any one of those programs could reach Indianapolis if it receives elite quarterback play.
The Big Ten’s greatest obstacle may be its own depth. A contender can play well and still lose at Iowa, Washington, Michigan or USC. That weekly difficulty could produce more two-loss playoff candidates than undefeated teams.
The league has already proved that its best team can win the national championship. The 2026 season will determine whether Ohio State, Oregon or Indiana can extend the Big Ten’s reign—or whether one of the conference’s ambitious challengers is ready to produce a fourth champion in four years.
